Module Prices Continue to Diverge, Distributed Market Expectations Remain Weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM November 24 News:

Silicon Metal

Price

Silicon metal futures prices rose first and then declined last week. Last Friday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was quoted at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, and the most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,960 yuan/mt. Northern silicon enterprises were relatively active in selling to futures-spot traders at high prices, while downstream users showed mediocre purchasing sentiment, mainly purchasing as needed at low prices.

Production

In November, the reduction in silicon metal supply was mainly seen in Sichuan and Yunnan regions, with a slight increase in the north. Overall, production maintained a significant decrease MoM, and the national total supply is expected to drop below 400,000 mt.

Inventory

Social inventory: As of November 20, SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 548,000 mt, up 2,000 mt WoW. This included 129,000 mt in ordinary social warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 419,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot inventory portions), flat WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.7-54.9 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 51.9 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. Downstream transactions have not yet commenced, and polysilicon is currently in a period of mediocre trading, with the market temporarily holding steady and observing.

Production

Domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 mt, a relatively large decrease MoM from October, as many production capacities in Sichuan and Yunnan regions have been halted. Current expectations for December production indicate a continued decline.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has shown some increase. Currently, inventory distribution remains highly uneven among enterprises. With subsequent orders gradually decreasing, there is a possibility of inventory buildup.

Module

Price

Domestic module prices continued to diverge last week. For centralized projects, with recent contract signings for some projects, public bidding prices have increased compared to early November, with an increase of about 0.01-0.03 yuan/W, as bid price limits provided some support. Demand for distributed projects weakened again recently, and bidding sentiment for module types below 620W power remains high domestically. It is expected that before mid-December, the market will still be dominated by low-price competition, and the price center is expected to shift downward. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.667 yuan/W, 0.684 yuan/W, and 0.673 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.667 yuan/W and 0.687 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Module scheduled production in November is expected to decline as anticipated. An accident at a module enterprise in east China over the weekend is expected to affect some module production.

Inventory

Weekly inventory: module inventory remained largely unchanged this week. End-user purchasing volume was low, and demand remained in the doldrums.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand price is 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand price is 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand price is 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable temporarily. Recent imported sand negotiations have entered the second stage and are currently at a stalemate, while domestic sand prices held steady.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises began appropriate production cuts, but supply pressure remained high.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly. Crucible enterprises have not yet started negotiations or purchases.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 19-20.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 20-21.5 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 12.3-13.3 yuan/m². After entering November, settlement time points arrived, and domestic bidding competition intensified. Some third-tier and processing enterprises with high inventory levels offered discounts, with the lowest transaction price dropping to 12 yuan/m². Prices are expected to continue falling.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 13.3-14.3 yuan/m², with the transaction price center shifting downward.

Production

Domestic operating daily melting capacity remained stable last week. Some newly started production furnaces have not yet contributed incremental supply to the market, and domestic supply decreased slightly.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels remained temporarily stable. Industry inventory levels stayed high, with some glass enterprises' inventories approaching 30 days.